From the PowerScout Research Desk
Tampa Bay Lightning: Playoff hopes dashed?
Posted by: Jeremy_Scriven Sat, 2012-01-28 15:10
The NHL All-Star break couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Granted, any significant period of rest for players likely is a positive for NHL teams, but the Lightning are currently embarking on a winning streak that has reached four games. Only the Pittsburgh Penguins, whose current win streak has reached seven games, are a hotter team at the moment. In my opinion it would have be better for the Lightning if they could have kept the train rolling as they are desperate for points. With just 46 points so far this season, the notion of a return to the playoffs this season is growing more and more unlikely.
The Lightning sit nine points outside of the eighth position in the Eastern Conference, as well as the Southeast division. The Lightning’s 46 points in 48 games puts them on pace for just 78 points, a total that will leave them nowhere near a playoff spot considering the average point total of the last two eighth seeds in the Eastern Conference was 90.5 points. If history is any indication, 90 points is an absolute minimum for a team to have any hopes of a playoff spot.
So it’s an understatement to say that the Lightning have their work cut out for them in their final 34 games.
When one drills down a little further and really looks into why the Lightning are struggling, it boils down to their in ability keep the puck out of their own net. Tampa’s team defense and goaltending has been a major shortcoming this season. It has to be especially frustrating to the Lightning coaching staff and management when they look at the season Dwayne Roloson is having. 
Roloson’s MAX of 32 is well below the league average of 44 for goaltenders in the NHL. Roloson’s 7-10-2 overall record, 3.65 GAA, and .882 save percentage isn’t exactly what Steve Yzerman was paying for when he offered Roloson a one year contract extension last off season. Roloson’s Duels Won is 42%. That means his single game MAX is higher than the opposing goaltender in just 42% of games played. That ranks 50th in the NHL among all goalies.
Tampa has essentially gone with Mathieu Garon as the starting netminder, but the results have been mixed in that regard as well. If you combine the seasons Roloson and Garon are having, the point shares they are contributing is 17% less than the league average.
To be fair to the goalies, Tampa’s defense isn’t exactly doing them any favors either. The combined value to team wins put forth by Tampa’s defense is a whopping 25% worse than the league average. Tampa’s team defense has a point share of 14, while the league average is 18.7. Because of this, the Lightning are routinely being dominated in games and consistently lose the momentum battle in games. The Lightning have the 23rd ranked Momentum average. The bottom line is that the Lightning are giving way too many shots against, in relatively short periods of time. Giving up too many quality chances against typically leads to goals against. To nobody’s surprise, the Lightning have given up the most goals in the NHL (165).
The bottom line is that the winning formula in the NHL is to build a team from the back to the front. Goaltending is the most important position on the ice, followed by a strong defense core, depth up the middle, and finally players who make a living on the wing. The Lightning are extraordinarily weak at the two most important positions, goaltending and defense. This has to improve if the Lightning are to have any hope of putting together a playoff run. Luckily the Lightning are strong up the middle, courtesy of Steven Stamkos and Vincent Lecavalier. These two players, along with Martin St. Louis will have to carry the load for the remaining 34 games, but I’m afraid this is a task far to difficult to complete.
The Lightning will not make the playoffs this year, which is one of the major disappointments this season considering they were in the Eastern Conference Finals a season ago.
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